Energy 2040
Energy Insights empowers you to shape a brighter future by making smarter decisions today. We, Sproule, 4strat, and 4sing, have partnered to develop a framework for scenarios that enhances the exploration and understanding of the global energy transition, leading to more effective decision-making.
The scenarios are the fruit of many people's minds. The process included extensive examination of already published material on historic, current and future driving forces, a set of exploratory virtual workshops with a diverse group of participants from all (inhabited) continents, and experiments with using AI for horizon scanning purposes.
This approach deliberately tries to open the scenarios to the viewpoints of many different communities. For instance, the predominant narrative in richer nations has been about decarbonisation but this is starting to shift. In many other places, it is (and has been) about accessing any form of energy at an affordable price, and better still if it is reliably available and clean.
2040 as an end date was deliberately chosen. Given the Paris Agreement targets, most energy scenarios take 2050 as their end point - by which time the world is supposed to have decarbonised completely. As a result, most institutional scenarios feel compelled to have one scenario that is "normative" rather than "exploratory". In other words, it is what must happen, rather than what could happen.
By definition, this introduces some level of magical thinking as assumptions are made on what should happen to reach the promised target. The point of exploratory scenarios should be to challenge assumptions, and not to make them.
Hence, 2040 is a more useful date. It is close enough to think about meaningfully, but far enough for things to change substantially. There is no need for any normative scenario, we are free to explore what could be, and what that would imply for energy demand, energy supply, and all interconnecting systems. Our participative approach continues with this website, which gives you, the reader, the chance both to discover our work, and to sign up to interact some more based on your insights.
Humans use past experience to think about the future. This is fine in a stable environment, where little is changing, and past events can usefully inform options for the future. But, today is a period of fast paced change and hence it is important to create "memories of the future" which help create a better understanding of what could happen to decide on next steps.
Exploratory scenarios are to be understood in this context. They are not "dreams of an utopia/a dystopia" designed to inspire awe or horror. They are designed to be plausible hypotheses of how the world could turn out. This allows decision makers to question long held believes and assumptions, to identify more robust strategy options instead.
Our explorations combine qualitative soft systems thinking with quantitative energy fundamentals. On the one hand, this allows us to ensure that narratives about a fast changing world are balanced with the inevitable inertia and complexity in the global economy and trade, energy and resources systems. On the other hand, this helps us to sketch out societal feedback loops and how these affect the pace of change in the real world.
Hence the objective of these scenarios is not blue sky thinking about the future. It is to support better decisions here and now. By making these global energy scenarios available to all, our ambition is three fold: 1. To let a larger public consider the impact on their organisation, business and decisions. 2. To generate feedback of what others are seeing and hearing that we may not have picked up on. 3. To act as a starting point for focused projects on sub-geographies or sectors, whilst taking account of the global scenarios as a baseline.
