Key Learnings
A few insights into the energy transition:
  • We are reaping the consequence of 100 years of unconstrained global growth: The transition will drive us, we will not drive the transition
  • The Tomasi di Lampedusa doctrine applies: “Everything must change for everything to stay the same”
  • The parallel transitions will result in supply-demand mismatches, counter intuitive feedback loops and exacerbate (geo)political tensions
  • Tension and conflict may speed up the transition locally, but it will slow it globally: it will increase the cost and decrease the coverage or impact
  • The energy intensity of extracting new resources will keep increasing, and most steps to sustainability need more resources (including land)
Preconditions for an orderly transition:
  • There must be a clear path to a prosperous future for all fossil fuel producers. They must have an incentive to shift
  • Likewise, there must be a clear and hopeful path forward for all our citizens. Scaring people does not provoke useful change
  • A war economy will not get us where we need to be. It will focus on war, not a better world
Some methodological insights:
  • Deep trends determine change. Black swans are like earthquakes, manifesting the tension generated by movement of deeper forces
  • The « official » energy scenarios of many actors mix normative and exploratory. Often the normative ones contain contradictions
  • Quantitative mapping allows you to check if some qualitative affirmations hold water, or are only possible with magical thinking
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Signals
Constantly scanning the horizon for new signals is an important part of any thinking about the future. Clearly, there are big challenges in this:
  1. Diversity of sources: Are we looking enough at information that really see the inside story from enough locations?
  2. Recognising emergence: Even if the information is in front of our eyes, do we really see what is new, or just categorise it as "more of the same"?
  3. False positives: There may well be emergent developments, but how can we know that they will not fade again? It can be hard to know what will really turn out as a key change, rather than a small blip. That is why it is important to structure scanning work undertaken.

It can be hard to know what will really turn out as a key change, rather than a small blip. That is why it is important to structure scanning work undertaken.

For instance, regarding:

  1. Scanning: Having people in many places with many views is important.
  2. Emergence: Having a system, such as the 4Strat FSC is vital as it starts linking issues.
  3. False positives: This is where scenario thinking is important - many futures are possible.
Energy Insights
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