Energy Insights

Scenario 1

Swayttata( स्वायत्तता )/ạstqlạl (استقلال)/autonomy

The Swayttata/ạstqlạl/Autonomy scenario: This is a world with significant geopolitical tension and where multiple alliances exist. The tensions make the energy security of supply an absolute priority, and, as many states do not have reliable suppliers, they seek autonomy with whatever they have to hand. In some cases this is local renewable sources, in other cases it is nuclear, and others still it is fossil fuels. On the demand side, stagnant economies mean energy demand grows less, and given the fear of geopolitical dependency, reducing…

The socio-political transition: Whilst not a state of war, cooperation between states in different alliances is limited. This hinders the globalisation of services and undermines global supply chains. States reinforce become increasingly authoritarian to push through their economic priorities, and try to close their borders to throttle migration, but the numbers fleeing are also increasing, so sudden big bursts of migratory flows sometimes are forced on richer nations, sometimes causing virulent social reactions.

The techno-economic transition: A very wide range of outcomes emerges. Those with few local resources must run quasi war-economies to handle scarcity, pushing the market economy aside, and forcing some home-shoring or friend-shoring. Indeed, there is a forced focus on the circular economy. Other regions that were traditionally less dependent on globalisation, or have their own energy, are freer to develop their own route forward. But overall trade, innovation and growth all slow down.

The physical transition: The lack of cooperation strains the efficiency of food production and forces greater encroachment of humans on the usage of natural space, e.g. with mining locally. For the world as a whole, as a result there is a great variety of outcomes when it comes to mitigating the impact of climate change.

Main driving forces

Struggling powers in an multipolar world The geopolitical strife of the 2020s grows steadily worse. But rather than a Cold War bipolarity, the West fractures ("America first") and BRICS countries each seek their own place in the sun, although mostly focusing on their broader geographic region. The EU - without a guarantee of US military and geopolitical support - is forced to bond more tightly in order for European states to remain relevant.

Mutating supply chains & production patterns Governments direct their economies to make as much use of local resources as possible. This impacts global trade but critical resources will still be traded internationally. Recycling and the circular economy becomes a security, rather than a sustainability, priority.

Varying quantity and quality of that land humans use Governments try to maximise the economic rent from territory under their control, sometimes rolling back nature, and knowingly paying a price in terms of biodiversity lost.

Security of supply is by far the most important concern globally. To reduce dependency on others there is big pressure to reduce energy demand and diversify energy sources. Exporters of energy products try to maximise their returns but struggle to coordinate their efforts given tensions between blocs.

Energy affordability is hurt by super powers and energy suppliers focusing on protectionism and security measures.

Governments globally are tempted to intervene more. In growing economies, (nationalized) energy firms are forced to coordinate energy across the different sectors. Decentralised initiatives create some relief as they solve local problems without creating dependencies.

Those who most suffer are those for whom energy as a basic need is not fulfilled. Energy poverty remains a big challenge.

The global climate and environment bear the consequences of the focus on energy security. Consumer states take measures to reduce energy demand and emissions but for the wrong reasons. States struggle to transition their energy system at pace and use whatever local energy sources they have. Coal and oil remain internationally traded sources of energy as they can be derived from a diverse set of regions.

A few consequences of Autonomy on different geographies

Global governance structures break down as countries focus on their own success and “Make … Great Again” movements shape public debate. This results in slowing global economic growth and makes it difficult to invest in accelerating the energy transition. Fossil energy demand is sticky and increasingly expensive especially oil. Initially, green house gas emissions drop but for the wrong reasons.

Energy importers in Europe and East Asia find it hard to meet their energy needs, given their lack of local fossil fuels and raw materials needed for electrification. However, by actively promoting energy saving, reopening mines and forcing the pace of recycling/ renewable energy, they gradually shift to a better place, and indeed, decarbonise.
Energy importers in Africa, Asia and Latin America face similar challenges, but lack the funds to make a rapid transition resulting in increased energy poverty.
The heightened geoeconomic tension also slows overall growth in fossil fuel rich regions such as the Middle East, and North America. It is thus easier to invest in existing fossil fuel production than to switch to renewables, or invest in energy efficiency. Technology development and innovation are seen as being a matter of national security.

Signals and key drivers

Involving a group based in multiple geographies, we have gathered a number of releavant information sources, be these reports, articles, or workshop outputs. Just a handful of articles are listed below. As the website has to be "finished" at a particular point in time, the articles may appear old. But do not fear, in the actual tool we are using, there are regular updates of new articles.