Energy Insights

Scenario 2

Ecosistemas/ekosistem/ecosystems

The Ecosistemas/ekosistem/ecosystems scenario: This is a "multiplex world" where states and blocs of states cooperate, but without a dominant ideology. Energy demand increases considerably, especially in emerging markets, but there are challenges or the supply side to keep up. A series of international ecosystems provide a wide range of energy supply options, ranging from low carbon ammoniac and H2, through "traditional" renewable sources and nuclear power, up to and including fraced geothermal energy, but the challenge is the time it takes to develop the necessary…

The socio-political transition: Competition between blocs, with non-aligned countries benefiting as intermediaries, results in short-termism and more of the known market driven solutions. Even if the Chinese led bloc is politically more authoritarian both blocs share the same economic paradigm, where GDP is king. Moreover, governments focus on keeping their industry and consumers happy, and are not prepared to make either pay the price of the externalities provoked by burning fossil fuels. True reform is thus difficult and existing market designs often remain locked in.

The techno-economic transition: Green growth has become the new norm, but trade makes it hard to compel a circular economy. Demand for ressources, including energy, is booming, so one response is to try and reduce it with technical solutions. But that also needs ressources. Certain resources and key platforms are vital for all, making their owners rich. Migration continues but in manageable chunks, helping economic growth in the rapidly aging societies.

The physical transition: The visiblity of climate impact gives greater urgency and weight to the need for international cooperation. The balance of space for humans vs sustainabillity efforts and nature is achieved, but only on the cost of many poor missing out largely on space and quality of life. Indeed, the need for ressouces encourages many new sources to be exploited - including sub-sea and space mining.

Main driving forces

Change impact of inevitable climate change Climate change hits all parts of the globe, and its visible impact galvanises multiple actors to force a change in society and the economy.

Coping with social change & media Societies come together over climate under a new generation of leaders. There are winners and losers, but attempts are made to compensate losers so they do not block change.

Mutating supply chains & production patterns International supply chains work, and it is possible to spread technology, ideas and financial surpluses for reinvestment around the globe.

Countries are broadly aligned that reducing global greenhouse gas emissions is urgent and that it is part of a broad set of environmental challenges that need urgent action. However, the challenge is to keep up with a growing global economy and galloping demand for energy and resources.

Over time the EU Carbon Boarder Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is accepted to be a mechanism for stimulating the energy transition globally as developing and emerging markets are supported in their efforts to meet the minimum standards as set in the EU internal market. The pace with which these minimum standards evolve is coordinated through the yearly Conference of the Parties (COP) to ensure a levelling of the playing field globally and ensure a balance between energy sustainability, affordability and security. The downside is that this balance results in a pace of change that is not with the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Investments in energy efficiency globally play a big role in addressing all three pillars of the energy trilemma but it is generally accepted that emerging markets and developing economies will still grow their energy demand across all sectors to continue to reduce energy poverty and allow the emergence of a stable middle class.

The energy industry evolves rapidly as it grows a diversified set of solutions that is deployed globally. Renewables generation together with electrification of final energy demand are combined with a new set of sustainable molecular energy carriers (hydrogen, methanol, ammonia). Regional differences in configurating these technologies allow for adjustment to local socio-economic, geographical and infrastructure requirements.

Understanding the local energy potential and requirements is crucial to building up an energy system that ensures affordability and security of supply during the decades of the energy transition. In growing economies this results in rapid growth of wind and solar together with dispatchable sources like oil, natural gas and modern bioenergy to grow energy supply while moving it aways from especially traditional biomass.

A few consequences of Ecosystems on different geographies

Over time global governance improves as the super powers start to accept that solutions to systemic domestic challenges require global solutions. The global economic outlook improves which makes it easier to invest in an increasingly sustainable energy system. New energy technologies enable unlock the potential for a more efficient energy system but the pace at which this happens is slowed down by the inertia in changing human behaviours. On aggregate, global green house gas emissions start to drop in the 2020s and this drop accelerates into the 2030s and 2040s.

Many parts of Africa, Latin America and Asia are able to reduce energy poverty and support the emergence of a middle class, but that does mean it is harder for them to decarbonise rapidly. These countries need to keep up with a growing energy demand and do major investments into base infrastructure and stable dispatchable energy to secure energy.
East Asian and European countries are encouraged to continue the energy transition and increase energy efficiency, as they see how the energy intensity of extracting new resources keeps increasing. However, they also notice how most steps to sustainability need more of their scarce resources, including land and it is difficult to force behavioural change in a collaborative world.
In fossil fuel rich regions such as the middle East and North America, there is an incentive to decarbonise domestically to try and maximise the profit achieved by selling fossil fuels abroad at higher prices than is possible domestically. This also reduces the risk of having stranded assets as fossil fuels are phased out.

Signals and key drivers

Involving a group based in multiple geographies, we have gathered a number of releavant information sources, be these reports, articles, or workshop outputs. Just a handful of articles are listed below. As the website has to be "finished" at a particular point in time, the articles may appear old. But do not fear, in the actual tool we are using, there are regular updates of new articles.